{"id":835,"date":"2021-03-02T09:59:18","date_gmt":"2021-03-02T15:59:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/?p=835"},"modified":"2021-03-02T10:06:29","modified_gmt":"2021-03-02T16:06:29","slug":"evidence-suggests-climate-whiplash-may-have-more-extremes-in-store-for-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/evidence-suggests-climate-whiplash-may-have-more-extremes-in-store-for-california\/","title":{"rendered":"Evidence suggests climate whiplash may have more extremes in store for California"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vanderbilt\u00a0<\/span>paleoclimatologists<\/span>\u00a0using pioneering research have uncovered evidence of ancient climate \u201cwhiplash\u201d in California that exceeded even the extremes the state has weathered in the past decade. Their findings present a long-term picture of what regional climate change may look like in the state that\u00a0<\/span>supplies the U.S.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0with more than a third of its vegetables and two-thirds of its fruits and nuts.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"portrait
Jessica Oster<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cWe hope this is useful to planners who are seeking more information on recurrence intervals of climate events like droughts, storms and floods,\u201d said\u00a0<\/span>Jessica Oster<\/span><\/a>, associate professor of Earth and environmental sciences.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Working with a stalagmite that grew from 8,600 to 6,900 years ago,\u00a0<\/span>Oster and a team of researchers set out to identify climate patterns beyond the scope of human records. Their article, \u201cSemiquantitative Estimates of Rainfall Variability During the 8.2kyr Event in California Using Speleothem Calcium Isotope Ratios,\u201d was\u00a0<\/span>published<\/span><\/a>\u00a0in the journal\u00a0<\/span>Geophysical Research Letters<\/span><\/i>\u00a0on Dec. 28. The researchers included graduate student Cameron de Wet and undergraduate\u00a0<\/span>Yiruo<\/span>\u00a0Xu.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Measuring calcium isotopes in stalagmites allows scientists to estimate actual quantities of past rainfall. Other markers, like trace element ratios and carbon, are affected by other factors and do not provide this level of clarity. Uniquely, calcium within speleothems\u2014stalactites or stalagmites\u2014is controlled by how quickly the water moves from the surface of rock above a cave to the cave itself. To make sense of the calcium isotopes, the researchers analyzed 69 samples from a stalagmite in White Moon Cave in the Santa Cruz Mountains and from modern samples of calcite grown in the cave.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Cameron
Cameron de Wet in White Moon Cave (Theral Mackey)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cAnalyzing calcium isotopes is a growing field,\u201d de Wet said. \u201cIt has already proven to generate more robust and reliable estimates of how rainfall varied in the past.\u201d This research is the first known to use calcium isotope analysis for speleothems in North America and the third known worldwide. \u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The records the team measured bookend an abrupt cold snap noted in global climate records 8,200 years ago. The event may have been triggered by the final phases of a melting ice sheet in Canada that dumped cold, fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean. With the Greenland ice sheet melting in a similar way today, Oster said that their research period could have functional relevance to what\u2019s happening with our current climate system.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

By comparing measurements of rainfall\u00a0<\/span>thousands of years ago<\/span>\u00a0with modern rainfall amounts, the researchers found that the magnitude of rainfall variability during and surrounding\u00a0<\/span>the early cold snap<\/span>\u00a0in some cases<\/span>\u00a0exceed<\/span>ed<\/span>\u00a0the climate whiplash experienced in California today. Combined, these records indicate that the Santa Cruz region may experience more wet and dry extremes in the future.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe can say climate extremes have happened in the past and that we\u2019ve seen once-in-a-lifetime events, but understanding the frequency of events can be helpful looking forward,\u201d de Wet said. \u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe way we currently look at climate change is through big-picture models, but it has been harder to get a local picture of what climate change might look like on the ground,\u201d Oster said. \u201cThe records we now have tell us what happened in this place, at a time that may have similarities to where we\u2019re going.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Research funding was provided by the National Science Foundation (AGS-1554998), the National Geographic Society (NGS-39815)<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>the Karst Waters Institute and the Geological Society of America. All data are with the\u00a0<\/span>NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Paleoclimatology Data<\/span><\/a>\u00a0repository.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Article by\u00a0Marissa Shapiro<\/a>\u00a0Feb. 24, 2021, 9:00 AM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vanderbilt\u00a0paleoclimatologists\u00a0using pioneering research have uncovered evidence of ancient climate \u201cwhiplash\u201d in California that exceeded even the extremes the state has weathered in the past decade. Their findings present a long-term picture of what regional climate change may look like in the state that\u00a0supplies the U.S.\u00a0with more than a third of its vegetables and two-thirds of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":837,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[11],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/cdn.vanderbilt.edu\/vu-cas\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2021\/03\/02100621\/JessicaOsterweb-190x250-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=835"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":836,"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835\/revisions\/836"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/as.vanderbilt.edu\/earth-environmental-sciences\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}